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    2026 Atlantic hurricane season runs June 1 to November 30.

    Tampa Bay Hurricane Tracker

    Tampa Bay is the most surge-vulnerable major metro in the United States. The bay is shallow, funnel-shaped, and opens to the southwest, so a storm passing to the north pushes Gulf water straight up it. Hurricane Helene on September 26, 2024 proved it: the center stayed more than 100 miles offshore on its way to the Big Bend, and the bay still recorded 6.3 feet above normal high tide at St. Petersburg, 6.7 at Clearwater, and 7.2 at East Bay, all records, with the worst flooding on the Pinellas barrier islands, Shore Acres, and Davis Islands.

    Twelve days later Hurricane Milton on October 9, 2024 came ashore at Siesta Key as a Category 3 with 120 mph winds, which put Tampa Bay on the weak side for surge but delivered 100-plus mph gusts, 45 tornadoes across the state, and the roof off Tropicana Field. The lesson the region relearned twice in two weeks: surge depends on where the storm passes relative to the bay, not on its category, and a storm to the north is the one to fear.

    Radar

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    Composite radar, Tampa Bay.

    Evacuation zones for Tampa Bay

    Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco, and Manatee counties each issue their own evacuation orders by zone A through E, with Manatee calling them levels. Zone A covers the lowest-lying coast and barrier islands and is ordered out first. Nearly all of the Pinellas barrier islands and the bay shore are Zone A. Orders come from the county emergency management agency and are issued zone by zone as a storm approaches.

    Local emergency management, shelters and outages

    Each county's emergency management office posts evacuation orders, shelter openings, and re-entry information. The local National Weather Service forecast office issues watches and warnings, and the utility outage maps show real-time power status across the region.

    What Tampa Bay should watch for

    The single most important detail is the storm's track relative to the bay mouth. A storm passing north of the bay pushes Gulf water straight up into it and is the worst case for surge, as Helene showed, even at a lower category. A storm making landfall south of the bay, as Milton did, puts the region on the weak side for surge but brings wind and tornado risk instead.

    Surge stacked on a high tide is far worse than the same surge at low tide. Check the tide stage when a storm approaches, and do not wait for the next advisory if water is already rising. Bayshore Boulevard, Shore Acres, Davis Islands, and the beaches from Clearwater to Pass-a-Grille flood first and deepest.

    The Howard Frankland, Gandy, Courtney Campbell, and Sunshine Skyway bridges close at sustained winds around 40 mph and are the only ways off the Pinellas peninsula. Once they close you are staying, so leaving Zone A late means being trapped. Leave before the wind picks up, not after.

    Power restoration took more than a week in parts of the region after Milton. Have enough water, food, and fuel for at least seven days, and run any generator at least 20 feet from any door, window, or vent with a battery-operated carbon monoxide alarm inside.

    Frequently asked questions

    Is Tampa in an evacuation zone?

    Much of the Tampa Bay coast and bay shore is in Zone A or B, the first and second zones ordered out. Zones are assigned by surge risk, not by your flood insurance zone, so a home that has never flooded can still be in Zone A. Look up your exact address with your county's tool above before a storm threatens, because evacuation orders come by zone letter, not by city.

    Where are the shelters in Tampa Bay?

    Each county opens shelters on a storm-by-storm basis and lists them on the emergency management pages above. Hillsborough and Pinellas post live shelter status, including pet-friendly shelters with limited space that require advance registration and proof of vaccinations. Shelters are generally inland and outside the ordered evacuation zones, so getting to one may mean driving across the bay before the bridges close.

    When was the last hurricane to hit Tampa?

    Hurricane Milton made landfall at Siesta Key, just south of the bay, on October 9, 2024 as a Category 3 with 120 mph winds. Two weeks earlier, Hurricane Helene stayed more than 100 miles offshore but still set the record surge for the bay, and its coastal flooding did more damage in the region than Milton did. No storm hit Florida in 2025. The last direct landfall on the bay itself was in 1921.

    How high can storm surge get in Tampa Bay?

    Helene's 6 to 7 feet in September 2024 is the highest on record for the bay so far, and that was from a storm that never made landfall nearby. National Hurricane Center modeling shows a worst-case major hurricane tracking just north of the bay mouth could produce more than 15 feet of surge. The bay is shallow and funnel-shaped, so the track relative to the bay matters more than the category.

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